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Steel production in China will drop      [2018-04-12]

Iron ore will average $61.80 a metric tonne this year and $51.10 in 2019, Australia’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science said in a quarterly report on Monday. That compares with projections of $52.60 and $48.80 in the previous outlook. The forecasts are for free-on-board prices. Prices are “expected to moderate, to better reflect the fundamentals of growing low-cost supply from Brazil and moderating demand in China,” the department said, predicting rising global volumes this year as well as next, driven by new mines including Vale’s giant S11D project in Brazil. Steel production in China will drop each year through to 2023, while iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil rise before levelling off, it forecast. Among the department’s projections, China’s iron ore imports are forecast to ease from 1.08bn tonnes this year to 1.04bn in 2023. At the same time, nationwide steel output will fall from 832mn tonnes this year to 805mn in 2023, while local steel usage contracts from 772mn tonnes to 742mn.